kravi4/Suzerain-Arena

Suzerain-Arena targets a critical gap in LLM evaluation: long-horizon strategic reasoning and negotiation, which current benchmarks like MMLU or GSM8K fail to capture. Using Catan as a first use case is clever because it requires resource management, spatial reasoning, and social negotiation. However, the project currently has a defensibility score of 2 because it is brand new (0 stars, 0 days old) and lacks any community validation or leaderboard data. To build a moat, it needs to establish itself as the 'Evo-style' standard for strategic gaming, which requires significant adoption from model providers to list their results. It faces competition from broader agentic benchmarks like AgentBench or specialized research from Meta (e.g., Cicero for Diplomacy). Frontier labs like OpenAI (o1 series) are focusing heavily on reasoning; while they may not build a Catan-specific arena, they will likely release generalized reasoning benchmarks that could make niche strategic benchmarks less relevant. The platform risk is medium because while Google or OpenAI might not care about Catan specifically, they are incentivized to control the benchmarks that prove their models are superior at 'reasoning'.